Weekly Stock Market Outlook – April 1-5, 2013

By | April 5th, 2013 12:04 AM EST | posted in Weekly Market Outlook

(This week’s market outlook is provided by Calculated Risk.)

The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, vehicle sales on Tuesday, ISM service index on Wednesday, and the Trade Balance report on Friday. Also Reis will release their Q1 2013 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate surveys this week. Last quarter Reis reported falling vacancy rates for apartments, malls, and offices.

Weekly Stock Market Outlook - April 1-5, 2013

—– Monday, Apr 1st —–

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for March.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in February at 54.2%. The employment index was at 52.6%, and the new orders index was at 57.8%. The consensus is for PMI to decrease to 54.0%. (above 50 is expansion).

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in construction spending.

—– Tuesday, Apr 2nd —–

Early: Reis Q1 2013 Office survey of rents and vacancy rates.

All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be at 15.4 million SAAR in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) unchanged from 15.4 SAAR in February.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for February. The consensus is for a 2.9% increase in orders.

—– Wednesday, Apr 3rd —–

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Early: Reis Q1 2013 Apartment survey of rents and vacancy rates.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 205,000 payroll jobs added in March.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 56.0 unchanged from 56.0 in February. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

—– Thursday, Apr 4th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 350 thousand from 357 thousand last week.  The “sequester” budget cuts appear to be impacting weekly claims.

Early: Reis Q1 2013 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for March. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sales and for seasonal factors.

5:00 PM: Speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet YellenCommunication in Monetary Policy, At the 50th Anniversary Conference of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, Washington, D.C.

—– Friday, Apr 5th —–

8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 193,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March; the economy added 236,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.7% in March.

The second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through January.

The economy has added 6.35 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (5.7 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 2.5 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.

Exports decreased in January, and imports increased (most of the increase was petroleum).

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $44.8 billion in February from $44.4 billion in January.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for February from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $16.0 billion in February.

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